Has Özil Mesut It Up?

Blogger #14:

Quite recently, I participated in some creative writing contest after a friend of mine nagged me senseless into the whole thing. I somehow squeezed past the prelims and was pipped at the post by several people who knew members of the organizing committee. Hands were clasped and backs were slapped before the finals had even begun. The organizers had marked me out for a whistleblower and gave me a 'special mention' so that I wouldn't blow said whistle. Though admittedly, my story could have done with some fine-tuning but it is so much easier to blame someone else. Making someone a scapegoat you know? Arsenal fans love doing that. Ask Aaron Ramsey. And there have been recent rumbles about a certain 42.5 million pound signing. Anyway, I didn't win, and that's fine, because I'm not much of a creator. But Mesut Özil is. Though he hasn't chalked up 30 assists yet and that's ruffled a few feathers. But before a section of the Gooner fanbase blows its top, I am here to tell the 20 people who will read this blog why Arsenal haven't seen the best of Mesut Özil yet and why he hasn't done badly at all.

In football, there are two components in making a great pass: the pass itself, and the run. You can play a defense-splitting, eye of the needle, perfectly weighted through ball, and end up looking like a bit of a tool if your teammate didn't bother making the run that you had imagined him to be making. He'll give you a thumbs-up and a remorseful grin, while the TV cameras focus on you standing there with a look that resembles the lovechild of contempt and shock. The commentator says, "That's not like him", or if your teammates consistently let you down, "Another poor pass by Jimmy Postletwaithe there". The fans at the pub make certain derogatory remarks about your mother, and life goes on. Özil faces that predicament at Arsenal. It is his greatest desire to serve it on a platter, but nobody seems to want to sit at the dining table. It is at this point that I hope my readers have done a double take. I shall assume you have, regardless of the truth and elaborate further.

In attack, footballers can be broadly divided into two categories: Creators and Runners. The Runners like to get onto the end of a pass. They look to run into spaces behind the defence. The Creators look for these gaps and play the ball into them. Every team will have a balance between the two types. Man City have Silva and Nasri creating with Aguero and Navas often running into spaces. In Lukas Podolski and Theo Walcott, Arsenal have two fine runners. What do these two have in common apart from that? They've both been injured for large parts of the season. I love Santi Cazorla as much as the next man, and Tomas Rosicky more than the next man, but when they play alongside Özil, Arsenal end up with too many creators. Ramsey alleviated Walcott's absence with his surges from deep, but that isn't quite the same as having a runner playing off the last defender. Contrast this with Özil's teammates at Real Madrid. Ronaldo, Benzema, Di Maria made the runs that Özil needed them to make. Runners. That's what Mesut Özil has missed.

In 1480 minutes of Premier League football, Özil has created 51 chances. That's a chance every 29 minutes, which you will admit, is pretty darn good. Now, Özil has played just 400 minutes with Theo Walcott. In this time, he created 16 chances. That is a chance every 25 minutes. To round it off, without Walcott, Özil creates a chance every 31 minutes. Which, again, is something you can't complain about. Podolski and Özil have played just 31 minutes together, during which Özil created 4 chances (8 minutes/chance). You might not believe me, but you can certainly believe these numbers. Assuming you believe I didn't make them up.

Can the mere presence of a runner help improve a creator's numbers, I hear you asking. Well, yes. A run made into space often creates space for other people. A runner might draw a defender away from the centre, thus opening up space for a teammate to run into. It is wondrous indeed that a game built on such simple foundations often produces the most complex of patterns. Allow me to explain with an example.

Now, Podolski (purple jersey) is running into the picture on the top of your screen. Cazorla (purple again) plays him in, and he produces the finish. But, notice Olivier Giroud's (it's a hat-trick!) run near the bottom of the screen. He moves towards the centre initially. Had he carried on, he would have taken up the space Cazorla was running into, pushing play towards Podolski's side, thus adversely impacting his run. Instead, he checks his movement, and goes away from the middle, dragging the defender away in the process. See what I mean? Simple enough game on the surface, but when you take a closer look, it's not simple at all, is it?

But despite this apparent handicap, Özil hasn't done badly compared to his Madrid days. Take a look. (League only).

	2013-2014 (Arsenal)	2012-2013 (Real Madrid)
Accurate Crosses %	36.62	29.20
Accurate Long Balls %	75.61	62.5
Accurate Passes %	87.62	84.09
Accurate Through Balls %	60	39.53
Aerial Lost	6	16
Aerial Won	5	6
Aerial % Assists	45.45 7	27.27 13
Dispossesed/90 mins	1.40	1.67
Dribbles/90 mins	1.58	1.08
Fouls	6	22
Minutes Played	1480	2743
Goals	4	9
Interceptions	3	18
Minutes/Interception Minutes/Key Pass	493.33 29.02	152.39 29.82
MOTM	3	1
Minutes/Assist Minutes/Goal	211.43 370	211 304.78
Total Crosses/90 mins	4.32	4.50
Total Long Balls/90 mins	2.49	2.1
Total Passes/90 mins	68.29	38.78
Total Shots	22	30
Minutes/Shot Shots/Goal Total Tackles	67.27 5.5 14	91.43 3.33 28
Minutes/Tackle Total Through Balls	105.71 10	97.96 43
Minutes/Through Ball Turnovers Minutes/Turnover	148 36 41.11	63.79 43 63.79

As you can see, Özil has clearly involved himself a lot more in the build-up play at Arsenal. He's averaging almost double the number of passes per game he did in his last season at Madrid (68 v 39). His rate of providing assists has remained the same, although his goalscoring rate has gone down. Surprisingly, despite being involved more, his defensive contribution is poor compared to his Madrid days. On the positive side of the ledger, there is a marked improvement in his passing accuracy as well.

All of this suggests a player who is adjusting to a different role in a new team. Factor in the absence of a preseason, an entirely new league that even legends like Henry, Pires and Bergkamp took time adapting to, and suddenly, Özil's performances don't appear too bad after all. Can he do better? By his own admission, he can. And all the numbers indicate he will.

The inflated price tag possibly played a role in colouring many people's perception of the type of player that has been purchased. Özil isn't a Messi or Ronaldo. He isn't even of the Fabregas mould, wherein all the play goes through him. He will seldom take centre-stage. He sets up the platform, adjusts the spotlight, silently linking play up together. Granted, the best is yet to come, but what we've seen hasn't been bad at all.

Care to disagree? Drop in a comment. Or if you agree. I don't care if you want to post videos of cows chewing cud in the comments, just drop in a damned comment.

Thanking You,

Yours sincerely,

#14

P.S. Please don't post videos of cows chewing cud.