The Jack Wilshere Conundrum

Blogger: #14

Here's the thing with most young players, especially the British ones; they're hyped up to be the next big thing before they've really done anything of note, and before you know it, they fizzle out into oblivion. Don't get me wrong, these guys probably had the tools to make it big, but you need a certain level of mental maturity to really make the step up and that's something that you can never really gauge quite right now, can you? Now Arsenal have had their fair share of hyped up youngsters, but no one has had that tag bestowed upon them with as much as gusto as Jack Wilshere.

Say What?!

You can see why Arsenal fans warm to him. He's English, wears his heart on his sleeve, and he seems to be one of the lads. That apart, he brings terrier-like qualities to the middle of the park, along with the silky ability to beat a man. He's got tremendous potential, and put on one of the finest displays you'll see from a midfielder against Barcelona in that famous win. You see, the reason Wilshere is rated so highly is because of what he can become, but not what he is. Well, that's my opinion anyway. Now in this article I'll initially gloss over what I believe Wilshere's current state is, and then try to use stats to buttress my argument. They'll probably undermine everything I say, but I shall be brave.

Now, one of the major issues I currently have with Wilshere is that he hasn't discovered his best position yet. I'll compare him with another rising young British Arsenal star in Aaron Ramsey, who I have a lot of time for, as well as my favourite Arsenal player, Tomas Rosicky. Now, in his breakout 2010-2011 season, Wilshere was a steady presence for Arsenal in a deep role. He seldom shone (barring Barcelona), and his quiet consistency reeked of a maturity far beyond his years. But you really need to look at the people he was playing with. This was one of the finest starting XIs in Europe and Wilshere was put into the team at the best possible time. In contrast, in the post Cesc-and-Nasri era, Ramsey had to take on the mantle of creator-in-chief, right off the back of a horrific leg break, prior to which he was quickly becoming one of my favourite players. Now, he did okay, did good ol' Aaron, but since he was in a far more exposed environment, he ended up being made a scapegoat for the Arsenal faithful. But he's put his head down, worked hard and is now a vital cog of this setup. He wasn't really cut out for the AM role in my opinion, though he did quite well. But now, in the deeper runner role, Ramsey is thriving. In the few games Wilshere played in the hole last season, he disappointed me. His best role was the deep one he occupied in the '10-'11 season. However, he doesn't have Ramsey's engine or discipline and that is where Arsenal's lack of a DM comes into play. With a player like Wilshere, whose bursts forward often leave gaps behind, a defensive minded midfielder with the ability to cover ground quickly (Sorry, Arteta) is imperative. So while both of these youngsters enjoy their little forays forward, Ramsey times them better and has got the engine to get back. Now, the comparison with Rosicky is where it gets interesting. The AM role is what most people have earmarked for Wilshere, but he was poor there last season. Our worst run coincided with Wilshere being played as the AM. Both Rosicky and Wilshere have this precious ability to beat a man, and they have a tendency to really put in a few crunching tackles. However, Rosicky is one of the quickest passers of a ball you'll ever see. The man's vision is astounding. Wilshere, on the other hand, has this ponderous quality about him that I feel would be better suited to a deeper role. So to sum it up, while Wilshere has qualities that both Ramsey and Rosicky possess, he's more suited to a deeper role with a DM next to him than as an out-and-out AM. It is my belief that over time, a Ramsey-Wilshere double pivot can be formed provided Wilshere improves tactically. However, the glamorous no.10 role is something I can't see Jack occupying with much success. Now with Ozil on board (drool), I am of the opinion that Wilshere will settle into the deeper role anyway.

Future Double Pivot?

	2010-2011 Wilshere	Ramsey 11-12	Rosicky 11-12	Ramsey 12-13	Rosicky 12-13	Wilshere 12-13	11-12 p90 Ramsey	11-12 p90 Rosicky	12-13 p90 Ramsey	12-13 p90 Rosicky	10-11 p90 Wilshere	12-13 p90 Wilshere
Accurate Crosses	12	9	13	7	0	13	0.329	0.664	0.301	0	0.409	0.689
Accurate Long Balls	107	105	36	103	19	64	3.835	1.839	4.425	2.803	3.648	3.394
Accurate Passes	1639	1681	1087	1705	409	1028	61.4	55.522	73.246	60.344	55.875	54.52
Accurate ThroughBalls	11	6	11	11	5	9	0.219	0.562	0.473	0.738	0.375	0.477
Aerial Lost	12	19	12	23	4	8	0.694	0.613	0.988	0.59	0.409	0.424
Aerial Won	11	9	12	14	5	9	0.328	0.613	0.601	0.738	0.375	0.477
Assists	3	4	4	2	1	3	0.146	0.2043	0.086	0.148	0.102	0.159
Dispossesed	50	88	31	43	3	31	3.214	1.583	1.847	0.443	1.705	1.644
Dribbles	61	34	33	34	7	56	1.242	1.686	1.461	1.033	2.08	2.97
Fouls	35	32	24	48	13	23	1.169	1.226	2.062	1.918	1.193	1.22
Games Started	31	27	19	21	7	20
Goals	1	2	1	1	2	0
Interceptions	51	27	25	44	12	24	0.986	1.277	1.89	1.77	1.739	1.273
Key Passes	60	55	41	45	9	47	2.009	2.094	1.933	1.328	2.045	2.493
MOTM	0	1	1	1	2	0
Minutes Played	2640	2464	1762	2095	610	1697
Offsides	0	1	0	0	0	4
Red	1	0	0	0	0	1
Second Yellow	0	0	0	0	0	1
Shots Blocked	6	3	0	6	2	4	0.11	0	0.258	0.295	0.205	0.212
Shots On Target	9	18	10	12	4	4	0.657	0.51	0.516	0.59	0.307	0.212
Sub Off	15	10	6	5	5	6
Sub On	4	7	9	15	3	5
Total Clearances	21	11	4	26	1	2	0.402	0.204	1.117	0.148	0.716	0.106
Total Crosses	53	38	43	44	5	71	1.388	2.196	1.89	0.738	1.807	3.765
Total Long Balls	152	136	57	139	20	83	4.968	2.911	5.971	2.951	5.181	4.402
Total Passes	1903	1925	1275	1934	472	1192	70.313	65.125	83.084	69.639	64.875	63.217
Total Shots	27	62	38	46	10	12	2.265	1.941	1.976	1.475	0.92	0.636
Total Tackles	58	59	40	71	12	33	2.155	2.043	3.05	1.77	1.977	1.75
Total Through Balls	43	30	31	21	9	36	1.096	1.583	0.902	1.328	1.466	1.909
Turnovers	44	55	17	23	8	24	2.009	0.868	0.988	1.18	1.5	1.273
WasDribbled	34	32	11	32	7	20	1.169	0.562	1.375	1.033	1.159	1.06
WasFouled	48	27	23	32	10	52	0.986	1.175	1.375	1.475	1.636	2.758
Yellow	7	3	4	5	2	3

Well, that was my two cents, time to see how the numbers back me up. All the data I'm using is compiled and provided by #7, our tech guy. The retarded formatting is by yours truly.

Now the first thing that surprises me is the accurate crosses Wilshere puts in every 90 minutes. At 0.689 every 90 minutes last season, it's matched only by Rosicky's 0.664 in his stellar 11-12 season (albeit Rosicky is far more accurate with a 30% success rate. Wilshere clocks in at about 20%). My impression was that Wilshere did a lot less in the wider areas, however, the stats suggest otherwise. Ramsey, who's spent a fair bit of time on the wing, has the least number of accurate crosses every 90 minutes, which quite unsurprisingly indicates his preference for the middle of the pitch. Another stat which could prove a decent indicator of the average position each of the 3 occupies is the number of accurate long balls per 90 minutes. Wilshere clocks in at 3.648 and 3.394 accurate long balls every 90 minutes in his 2 full seasons, while Ramsey is closer to the 4 mark. Rosicky, on the other hand, hovers around the 2 mark, indicating his position higher up the pitch. Ramsey and Wilshere have a healthy 70-odd % success rate with their long balls. Rosicky oscillates from 63% in 2011-2012 to 95% in 2012-2013. However, his limited playing time in the latter season doesn't really lend substance to the increased accuracy.

Jack the Carrier, the Rise of Aaron Ramsey and the Year of the Mozart

Now, so far, we've come to the conclusion that on average, Wilshere has played a lot deeper than Rosicky. But unlike Ramsey, Wilshere plays far fewer passes. In both his full seasons, Wilshere played just 55 accurate passes every 90 minutes. This is comparable to Rosicky, who played 55 accurate passes every 90 minutes in the 2011-2012 season. Ramsey played 61 accurate passes in the 11-12 season, and this figure rose to 73 the following season. All 3 players had a healthy 85%-plus passing accuracy. However, in one aspect, Wilshere stands out. While Rosicky and Ramsey dribble once per 90 minutes, Wilshere does so atleast twice every 90 minutes (this figure rising to 3 last season). Wilshere also has more key passes to his credit than the other two. The clearest indicators of Wilshere's reduced involvement in deeper areas in his second season compared to his first, are the clearances per 90 minutes (down to 0.1 from 0.7), and number of long balls per 90 minutes (from 5 to 4). Despite producing more key passes than the other two, Wilshere lags behind Rosicky when it comes to the number of accurate through-balls per 90 minutes. In addition, Rosicky had a through-ball accuracy of 35% and 55% in his last two seasons, which dwarfs Wilshere's 25%. Thus, to state that Wilshere is the perfect fit for the number 10 role would be doing a disservice to Rosicky. The Czech's vision, propensity to speed up play and ability to press are all key to Arsenal's success. The fact that he plays far more through-balls than the young Britishers with far greater accuracy, and is dispossessed far less frequently is testament to his quality. Ramsey and Wilshere would do well to learn from the Mozart. 2012 was certainly a watershed year for him, and it's a shame that the arrival of Ozil would probably cut down his playing time.

Really cool photo of Tomas Rosicky. The Mozart of Metal.

Ramsey, to his credit, shows huge improvement from 2011-12 to 2012-13. Not only does he increase the frequency of his long and short passing, he more than doubles both, the accuracy and frequency of his through-balls. As if to drive home the point that he's turned the corner, he's doubled the number of interceptions he makes per 90 minutes and gets dispossessed far less frequently. All these combined have contributed to the resurgence of Aaron Ramsey, who at one point, appeared to be floundering.

Gettin' back in the groove

What of Wilshere, you ask? Well, as the numbers suggest, he's clearly not good enough to replace Rosicky. With the arrival of Ozil, the dream many harbour of seeing Jack playing in the hole would most certainly have to wait a few years to come to fruition. Central midfield beckons, and the numbers indeed suggest that is a good thing for him. Jack's a carrier, someone who can win the ball in midfield (high rate of interceptions), beat a man (highest number of dribbles of the 3, most fouled player as well), and thus open up space for teammates (higher rate of through-balls, key passes, and least rate of shots per 90 minutes indicate the space he opens up is of benefit to the others more often). That, in all this time, he's never won a Man-of-the-Match award backs my claim that he's never really dominated a game. Rosicky has won 3 with far less playing time. However, the signs are promising. Jack Wilshere can become a crucial pivot on which the Arsenal attack can support itself. However, it is unlikely that he'll ever be as successful in the hole as people claim he would be.

I hope this article has offered you some perspective. I understand stats can be looked at in a million ways and a million conclusions can be drawn. This is mine. I run this blog. So yeah, this is what gets published, sorry. However, do feel free to post your views in the comments section. They're most welcome. Like the red carpet and the garland sort of welcome. I'll throw in a few dancing girls as well. Pretty please?

Till next time,
Yours sincerely,
#14