Who Should be Left Back and Who Should be Left Back? - A Look at the England Left Back Situation

Blogger #18:

"I've been brought up over the last few years believing this was the golden generation. If this is the golden generation, the sooner we move away from the gold standard the better." - Lord Mawhinney, Football League Chairman in 2007.

After a decade of hype, expectations and hopes going down the drain, it’s at last common knowledge. England’s so-called ‘golden generation’ has passed its prime. Players like Gerrard, Rooney, and Lampard have repeatedly raised hopes with their excellent performances for their clubs only to disappoint in an England shirt. But amidst all the doom and gloom and shootout heartbreaks, Ashley Cole has always stood tall.

Only the seventh player to win 100 caps for England, he has been a consistent and reliable performer, is still considered as one of the best left backs in the world, and arguably the only member of the ‘golden generation’ to truly live up to his potential in an England shirt. When you consider the fact that next to nobody likes him (well, John Terry maybe) you have to admit it’s for his prowess and ability on the field alone. His performance against Ronaldo at Euro 2004 was probably one of the best defensive displays from an Englishman. 

But his injury for Friday’s qualifier against Montenegro has thrown up an interesting debate. Baines will, no doubt, replace Cole at left back, and will be looking to impress and press his claims for a spot on the first team. But in all honesty, Cole will slot back straight away once he recovers from his injury. An immensely likeable player, Baines has excelled over the past two seasons for Everton but has hardly featured for England. Much like Carragher before him, competing with Terry and Ferdinand for the center back spot, Baines has been terribly unlucky to have Cole to compete with.

Like we all believe, Baines is the more likable guy, but Cole’s different class. Right?

Maybe not.

Let alone the world, Cole might not even be the best left back in the England squad. And that is exactly what we’re going to try and investigate. And we’re not going to stop with comparing just Baines and Cole. We’re going to throw in a member of England’s future, Gibbs, and see whether he lives up to #14’s hype or if he’s another Cleverley in the making. (Who needs Wesley, when we’ve got Cleverley. Remember?)

Defending:

	Baines	Gibbs	Cole
Time/Mistake	171	123.6	111.6
Time/Dribbled Past	155.5	95.5	126.8
Time/Tackle	37.2	27.7	43.6
Time/Clearance	45	26.6	33.2
Time/Interception	60	32.8	73.4
% of Aerial Duels Won	39.2	44.44	52.5
% of Tackles won	79	74	73

Cole has built his reputation on hassling and dominating anyone in his zone and his ability in the air shines through winning more than 50% of his aerial duels. While Gibbs does a decent job too, winning almost 45% of his battle in the air, Baines’ ability in the air shows a lot to be desired.

But the most striking revelation is in the ‘dribbled past’ category. Baines is the more reliable when taking on opposing wingers, being dribbled past every 155 minutes compared to Cole’s 126. Baines also wins a mammoth 79% of his tackles. While Gibbs stands his ground in the tackling department (winning 74%of his tackles to Cole’s 73%), opposition wingers leave him standing every 95 minutes, way behind his peers.

Time For a Change of Guard?

Surprisingly, Cole is least active in the tackling department, with Gibbs way ahead. While you could be excused for thinking that this could be attributed to Chelsea’s possession play meaning Cole had less defensive work to do, that’s rendered useless when you consider who Gibbs plays for. Also, Everton match Chelsea as far as average possession is concerned (52%), so no excuses there. Another popular and fair notion is that tackles are not the best way to measure a defender’s skills because it means that the defender wasn’t in the right position in the first place. An interception, on the other hand, shows one’s ability to read the game. Again, Gibbs gives good reason for our very own Arsenal fan (#14) to cry with joy making an interception every 33 minutes while Cole is again made to looks like a bystander with one every 73 minutes. Baines quietly slots between them in both tackles and interceptions with a tackle every 37 and interception every 60 minutes.

Although these stats have made Cole looks quite ordinary, one can also assume they point out to Chelsea’s midfield prowess. A strong and impregnable midfield doing much of the defensive work for the team leaving Cole with little to do. But when you consider that Arsenal (who aren’t exactly famed for the defensive qualities of their midfield) Everton and Chelsea almost match each other in the number of goals conceded (40, 39 and 37) our assumption starts posing a huge question mark over Chelsea’s defence. Cole’s inactivity might also mean a porous backline whose vulnerability is exposed quite frequently whenever an attack bypasses their midfield wall.

While it is of paramount importance to make crucial tackles and interceptions to cut out an attack, defenders are also being increasingly judged on their ability to stay calm under pressure and avoid mistakes. Looking at the number of mistakes done by each player (loss of possession due to a mistake/poor control), Baines again emerges as the most reliable. The numbers tell us that Cole makes errors more often than Baines does, and while Gibbs can take comfort from the fact that he isn’t the worst offender, he is a lot closer to Cole than he is to Baines.

The picture we’ve painted so far shows Baines to be a reliable, if not spectacular, defender. His forays forward often deflect attention from his defensive abilities and while these numbers don’t exactly shout out for his inclusion in the main team, they certainly show us that England won’t be weakened with him. Gibbs is perfectly shown as a young, talented and possibly rash defender, his energy clearly there for all to see, but he seems to be susceptible one-on-one, something he’ll have to work on.

But going forward? Just one winner.

Passing and Attacking:

	Baines	Gibbs	Cole
Goals	5	0	1
Assists	5	3	2
Time/Keypass	29.5	67.8	155
Pass Accuracy (%)	83	84	89
Cross Accuracy (%)	30	17.7	9.6
Time/Dribble	114	191.1	214.6
Time/Dispossesed	101	162	116.25
Time/Fouled	59	191	126.8

All three are full-backs who love going forward, although permitted to do so at different levels by their respective clubs. England largely rely on overlaps, and in the absence of a world-class left winger in Hodgson’s 4-4-2, all three would do well.

But this is where Baines is in a class of his own. His attacking stats are something akin to that of a winger and his value to this Everton team is evident for all to see with him playing a key pass (a pass that leads to a shot on goal) every 29 minutes. Compared to that, Gibbs’ contribution at a key pass every 68 minutes looks laughable, and yet looks impressive when you bring Cole’s contribution (155 min/key pass) into perspective. Of course, Baines was the focal point of a majority of Everton’s attacks last season, but even then, 3 chances created every game looks mighty impressive when you see that Cole creates one every game and three quarters.

Interesting snippet - Last season, Baines created the most chances in not just England, but Europe. That includes midfielders, strikers ET al. That’s more chances created than  the likes of Ozil, Cazorla, Sniejder and Iniesta. And he’s a left back.

But Cole shows his reliability completing 89% of his passes. While it’s not a huge jump over Baines’ 83% and Gibbs’ 84%, for an England side that regularly struggles to keep hold of the ball it could prove crucial. Baines is also dispossessed (being tackled by an opponent) more often than the other two. Gibbs’ ability on the ball, honed in his days as a winger, shines through with opponents struggling to get the ball off him (once every 166 minutes).

But, Baines plays a much more important role for his side in the attacking third. This could explain his reduced accuracies as he would be closed down more often, attempting intricate passes in a much more crowded zone of the pitch aimed towards areas with a higher number of opposition players.

Baines also shows why he could be included in the side even when Cole returns. As a left winger.

At home when attacking down the flanks, he dribbles successfully almost twice as often as Cole. His crossing skills are also obviously superior to the other two, more so to Cole, Baines being thrice as accurate as Cole. Of course, much of Baines’ crosses will have been aimed at the likes of Fellaini, while Cole had to deal with Fernando Torres. Again, Gibbs makes a case for his own inclusion over Cole, bettering him in both dribbling and crossing abilities.

Interestingly, Baines also draws the most number of fouls from opponents (once every 59 minutes). Ironically, it is for his ability on the ball that they hack him down but inevitably provide him with an opportunity to flex his set-piece abilities, leading us to his most famed talent.

Not since Beckham’s retirement have England possessed a more potent crosser and free kick taker. In games where they struggle to break down the opposition, which quite frankly happens a lot, Baines could make the difference. 10-3 over both Gibbs and Cole on the goals and assist tally is a telling statistic.

Final Thoughts:

By no means am I trying to doubt Cole’s abilities as a footballer. The numbers may not paint him in favourable light, but as it’s often said, stats hide a lot more than they reveal. His contributions cannot be ignored and he will probably be the only English player in the last 5 years to make it into a World XI. His experience and guile when defending against top opposition who will take the game to England will surely prove crucial if and when England qualify for Brazil 2014.

Gibbs has shown that he has the ability to ply his trade amongst the English elite. Reliable and ever-active in defense, he seems to be a younger version of A.Cole himself. While he may not possess the attacking abilities of Baines, he has shown that he can more than take care of himself in the final third. He’s got age on his side, and if he could work on his defensive abilities one v one, it might not be long before he permanently features in the England line-up.

But, given his truly inspired play over the last two years, leaving Baines on the bench would be a colossal waste of talent. With leading attacking stats in not just England, but Europe, his attacking abilities are unparalleled amongst English defenders. Hugely underrated defensively, Baines is the way to go if England are to move forward as a team.